tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6118088234656743161.post8217275165657845662..comments2023-10-07T15:40:50.974+08:00Comments on Spieler: 民意調查?調查民調!drspielerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13306473220650927173noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6118088234656743161.post-4484393206885800622008-06-29T18:59:00.000+08:002008-06-29T18:59:00.000+08:00[color=red]建國尚未成功,同志仍須努力!目前的民調數字,馬英九還會有74.86%勝選機率。...[color=red]建國尚未成功,同志仍須努力!<BR/><BR/>目前的民調數字,馬英九還會有74.86%勝選機率。[/color]<BR/><BR/><BR/>扣掉雙方鐵票,剩下11%游離票(所謂中間選民)裡必須拿下8%,0.08/0.11=.027<BR/>亦即中間選民部份馬英九必須拿0.27以下,才會競選連任失敗。<BR/>已知:<BR/>馬英九今年得票率=0.6,則求算小於0.27之機率式子如下:<BR/>令P(p<0.27)<BR/><BR/>P(P<0.27)=>(把整式子經過「標準化」處理)<BR/>==> P(Z<(0.27-0.6)/(0.6*0.4)^1/2)<BR/>==>P(Z<(-0.673))=0.2514<BR/><BR/>小結論:馬英九於中間選民得票率「低於0.27」之機率為0.2514<BR/><BR/>1-0.2514=0.7486=74.86%(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com